● MLB OVER UNDER PICKS BY MARCDUCK · AI-ASSISTED
MLB Over/Under Picks Today
MLB over/under picks (totals) bet on whether combined runs scored will go OVER or UNDER the posted line. We use a Negative Binomial run-distribution model — overdispersed Poisson, the correct statistical family for run totals — instead of the Gaussian most public sites still use.
BY MARCDUCK
AI-ASSISTED
MLB OVER UNDER PICKS
How These Picks Are Made
Inputs to the total: starting pitcher xFIP scaled by IP, park factor adjusted by handedness, weather (temperature, humidity, wind direction × ballpark CF orientation), umpire run tendencies, and day vs night offense splits. We blend our model with the market O/U at 55/45.
Today's MLB Over/Under Picks
Every game below is analyzed by our model. Confidence is the model's internal rating; expected value (EV) is the edge over the de-vigged market closing line. Picks with positive EV are sized at 1/8-Kelly with variance-adjusted stake reduction.
No games on the slate today. Check back after 8 AM PT for tomorrow's card.
Frequently Asked Questions
How are the MLB Over/Under Picks chosen?
Picks are made by MarcDuck with AI assistance. The model weighs up to 35 factors per game (FIP/xFIP, bullpen quality, park factors by handedness, weather, lineup splits, line movement, recent form). MarcDuck reviews and formulates the final pick before it goes on the card.
Are MLB Over/Under Picks updated daily?
Yes, twice daily. The morning run at 8 AM Pacific grades yesterday and regenerates today's card. The afternoon run at 4 PM Pacific builds tomorrow's card once starting pitchers are confirmed.
How accurate is the model?
Public track record: 251 graded picks, 54.9% hit rate, +8.78 units, +9.9% ROI on recommended 1/8-Kelly stakes. Updated daily on the Track Record page. We don't hide negative results — every pick is logged and graded honestly.
Are these MLB picks free?
Yes. Every MLB pick on this site is free. No signup, no paywall, no email required. Full model output (pick, confidence, expected value, moneyline, edge) is visible to anyone.
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